Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity

Details Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsm31a0309l&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SM31A-0309

Physics

2407 Auroral Ionosphere (2704), 2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 2721 Field-Aligned Currents And Current Systems (2409), 2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964), 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

To a large extent, the solar wind controls magnetospheric dynamics. Therefore measurements of the solar wind upstream of the Earth can be used to predict the characteristic variations of the magnetosphere. We have developed models to predict rather accurately the variations of radiation belt electron fluxes and the Dst index based on available solar wind measurements. However, on shorter time-scale there is much less predictability of magnetospheric activity. We will demonstrate this by using two recently developed empirical models (one simple and one complex) to predict the AL index, a measure of the Earth's auroral activity derived from magnetometer stations in the Northern hemisphere. Though both models were optimized to predict the 10-min averaged AL index, both models predict a longer-averaged AL index very well (prediction efficiency of 0.736 and 0.825 respectively for the two hour averaged AL using the simple and complex models for the whole year of 1995) while predicting the difference between 2-hour averaged AL and the 10-min AL poorly (prediction efficiency of 0.083 and 0.136 respectively), implying much less predictability for shorter time-scale variations. The models show that the AL index is strongly dependent on the solar wind magnetic field and velocity but is practically independent of the solar wind density. Such empirical models provide physical insight into the interaction processes.

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