Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.506..145k&link_type=abstract
In: Solar variability: from core to outer frontiers. The 10th European Solar Physics Meeting, 9 - 14 September 2002, Prague, Cze
Physics
2
Solar Activity Cycles: Fine Structure, Forecasts
Scientific paper
The principal components of the solar activity indices time-series were obtained by the Singular Spectrum Analysis method and identified with the centennial cycle, 11-yr variation and quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO). The amplitudes of the QBO and 11-yr cycle were found to be modulated by the centennial cycle. The following properties of the centennial cycle were settled: the maximum phase has the double-peak structure; the rising part of the centennial cycle (including the first maximum) as a rule covers three solar cycles; the first and the second maximum of the centennial cycle are separated by one small or medium 11-yr cycle; the second maximum consists of just one 11-yr cycle; the fall-down part of the centennial cycle includes four 11-yr cycles. The centennial cycle was found to consists of nine 11-yr cycles and its duration was calculated to be 100±5 years. The double-peak structure was found to be an essential property of the solar cycle maximum phase. The forecast of the Wolf numbers for the solar cycle 24 was obtained.
Khramova M.
Kononovich E.
Krasotkin S.
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