Coherent structures in planetary flows as systems endowed with enhanced predictability

Physics

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Turbulence, Diffusion, And Mixing Processes In Oceanography, Solar System Objects

Scientific paper

The effects of nonlinearity in geophysical flows are generally modeled from the viewpoint that the motion is turbulent. In turbulence theories, nonlinear interactions, through the transfer of energy among the various scales of motion, cause the system to lose the memory of the initial state. This randomness postulate is violated by coherent structures, namely, solitary eddies. For them, nonlinearities play the opposite role of preserving phase correlations against the effects of dispersion. Coherent structures are therefore completely predictable systems. Model equations relevant for geophysical flows thus admit a well-defined parameter range in which the dynamics is dominated by orderly, coherent structures much more than predicted by any turbulence theory. This range is broad and the structures robust. In this nonlinear dynamical range, the permanent waves, solutions of the chosen model, are endowed with enhanced predictability, theoretically infinite in the dissipationless, unperturbed state of motion; and more generallly, every eddy structure having physical space and Fourier properties similar to those of the exact, nonlinear solutions is endowed with enhanced predictability with respect to random flow evolutions obeying a turbulence dynamics.

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