On Prediction of the Strength of the 11-Year Solar Cycle No. 24

Details On Prediction of the Strength of the 11-Year Solar Cycle No. 24 On Prediction of the Strength of the 11-Year Solar Cycle No. 24

Mar 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008soph..248..191o&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, Volume 248, Issue 1, pp.191-202

Physics

14

Scientific paper

Various forecast techniques have been analyzed with reference to solar activity cycle 24. Three prediction indices have been proposed: the intensity of the polar field, the mean field at the source surface, and a recurrence index of geomagnetic disturbances. As a rule, the forecast based on the polar field and extrapolation of local fields gives a height for cycle 24 that is smaller than that of cycle 23. The use of the recurrence index and the global field value leads us to the conclusion that cycle 24 will be medium high: the same as or somewhat higher than cycle 23.

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