Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30xclm5n&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 24, pp. CLM 5-1, CiteID 2275, DOI 10.1029/2003GL018625
Physics
42
Global Change: Climate Dynamics (3309), Global Change: Water Cycles (1836), Hydrology: Drought, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Precipitation (1854), Oceanography: Physical: El Nino
Scientific paper
Climate model global warming simulations predict large regional changes in tropical rainfall, including regions of drought. Qualitatively similar changes occur during El Niño interannual variability. Using an intermediate climate model, we have identified a mechanism that creates regional reductions in precipitation at the margins of convection zones during warming. In this ``upped-ante mechanism'', a warm troposphere increases the value of surface boundary layer moisture required for convection to occur. In regions of plentiful moisture supply, moisture simply rises to maintain precipitation, but this increases the moisture gradient relative to neighboring subsidence regions. Reductions in rainfall then result for those margins of convection zones that have strong inflow of air from the subsidence regions and less frequently meet the increased ``ante'' for convection. In simulations analyzed here, this new mechanism is the leading cause of tropical drought in the global warming case and is dominant in certain El Niño drought regions.
Chou Catherine
David Neelin J.
Su Haibin
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