Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity

Details Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity

Mar 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011ep%26s...63..217o&link_type=abstract

Earth, Planets and Space, Volume 63, Issue 3, p. 217-229.

Physics

Scientific paper

The space-time version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for earthquake clustering. For more accurate seismic prediction, we modify it to deal with not only anisotropic clustering but also regionally distinct characteristics of seismicity. The former needs a quasi-real-time cluster analysis that identifies the aftershock centroids and correlation coefficient of a cluster distribution. The latter needs the space-time ETAS model with location dependent parameters. Together with the Gutenberg-Richter's magnitude-frequency law with location-dependent b-values, the elaborated model is applied for short-term, intermediate-term and long-term forecasting of baseline seismic activity.

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