Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology

Details Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology

Mar 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3405404t&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 5, CiteID L05404

Physics

15

Hydrology: Groundwater Hydrology, Hydrology: Groundwater Transport, Hydrology: Stochastic Hydrology, Hydrology: Uncertainty Assessment (3275), Hydrology: Vadose Zone

Scientific paper

We present a general framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of subsurface contamination. PRA provides a natural venue for the rigorous quantification of structural (model) and parametric uncertainties inherent in predictions of subsurface flow and transport. A typical PRA starts by identifying relevant components of a subsurface system (e.g., a buried solid-waste tank, an aquitard, a remediation effort) and proceeds by using uncertainty quantification techniques to estimate the probabilities of their failure. These probabilities are then combined by means of fault-tree analyses to yield probabilistic estimates of the risk of system failure (e.g., aquifer contamination). Since PRA relies on subjective probabilities, it is ideally suited for assimilation of expert judgment and causal relationships.

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