How rare are supernovae?

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

Visual observations by Robert Evans over the period 1980 - 1988 have been used to derive a mean rate of 1.3×(H0/75)2 supernovae per century per 1010Lsun(B) in spirals of types Sab - Sd. From this value the total Galactic supernova rate is found to be 3±1 per century. A comparable rate of 2.6±1.3 supernovae per century is derived from historical supernovae that exploded within 4 kpc of the Sun. These values are marginally consistent with the total rate of 1.2 (+1.7, -0.7) supernovae per century that Ratnatunga and van den Bergh predicted from the Scalo luminosity function of stars and a Galactic population model. It is puzzling that no Galactic supernovae have been observed during the last 389 years. The Galactic supernova rate is not high enough to account for the mass extinctions observed in the geological record.

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