On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle

Details On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle

May 1990

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990soph..127..199w&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics (ISSN 0038-0938), vol. 127, May 1990, p. 199-205.

Physics

6

Sunspot Cycle, Sunspots, Temporal Distribution, Error Analysis, Histories, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the 'average rate of growth' in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, it is inferred that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 + or - 30 or 185 + or - 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10-21 from the two fits.

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