Solar cycle and cosmic rays

Physics

Scientific paper

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Solar Cycles, Cosmic Rays, Space Weather

Scientific paper

In the formation of the space weather the cosmic rays and especially the solar proton events (SPE) are of the most interest. The phenomena of SPE are characterized by the values of charged particle (usually proton) fluences, i.e. the flux integrated over the period of the SPE. Annual solar cosmic rays (SCR) fluences of >30 MeV protons were investigated. The close relation between the cumulative decimal logarithms of proton fluences and the cumulative Wolf numbers was obtained in each of 19 - 22 solar activity cycles. The possibility to use this close relation for the SCR forecasts is discussed. The annual fluences of >30 MeV protons were estimated on the basis of Wolf numbers prognoses for 2002-2005 years.

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