Interplanetary Shock Forecasting With Suprathermal Ions: Solar Cycle Dependence

Details Interplanetary Shock Forecasting With Suprathermal Ions: Solar Cycle Dependence Interplanetary Shock Forecasting With Suprathermal Ions: Solar Cycle Dependence

Dec 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agufmsh14a..04p&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #SH14A-04

Physics

2101 Coronal Mass Ejections (7513), 2114 Energetic Particles (7514), 2162 Solar Cycle Variations (7536), 2194 Instruments And Techniques

Scientific paper

Recently, we established a new method of forecasting the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at Earth with suprathermal ions. This method requires measurement of specific characteristics of ions in the ~ 5-150 keV/amu kinetic energy range. Among these IP foreshock tracers are (a) elevated median energy (>25 keV/amu); (b) anomalous spectra in the range 10-30 keV/amu; and (c) outward (anti-sunward) pointing anisotropy. Employing a subset of this forecasting method, we predicted the arrival of 68% of interplanetary shocks at Earth during the rising phase of solar cycle 23 with a standard suprathermal particle detector. These earlier tests showed the following promising results: (a) substantially longer lead times on the order of ~ 24 hours in forecasting and (b) preferential identification of stronger forward shocks with higher than average potential for causing geomagnetic disturbances in their wake. In this paper, we will perform additional tests using Wind Suprathermal Ion Composition Spectrometer (STICS) measurements during a representative sample of the full solar cycle and evaluate the impact on the requirements for improving the forecasting method and developing future IP shock monitoring instrumentation, i.e., the Pre-Shock Suprathermal Ion Monitor (PreSTIM).

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