Prediction of the secular variation of the geomagnetic field by using a stochastic model

Physics

Scientific paper

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Geomagnetism, Magnetic Variations, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Secular Variations, Stochastic Processes, Accuracy, Time Series Analysis

Scientific paper

A stochastic model of time series analysis is developed for the
prediction of secular variations of the geomagnetic field. This method,
called the autoregression/integrated sliding mean model, is shown to be
more accurate than previous models of secular-variation analysis. The
model is applied to data from three geomagnetic observatories

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