Physics
Scientific paper
Feb 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007jastp..69...86f&link_type=abstract
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 69, Issue 1-2, p. 86-90.
Physics
2
Scientific paper
We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, LSGM, which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future Coronal mass ejections (CME) productivity. To demonstrate that LSGM is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region's measured LSGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 Marshall Space Flight CentreMSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, LSGM is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0 2 day window. The development of LSGM as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space-based assets is of value to NASA's space exploration initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars).
Falconer David Allen
Gary Gilmer A.
Moore Robert L.
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