Global and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting

Physics – Geophysics

Scientific paper

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Magnetospheric Physics: Storms And Substorms, Magnetospheric Physics: Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, Mathematical Geophysics: Modeling, Mathematical Geophysics: Nonlinear Dynamics, Mathematical Geophysics: Chaos

Scientific paper

The Earth's magnetosphere is a spatially extended nonlinear system driven far from equilibrium by the turbulent solar wind. During substorms it exhibits both global and multi-scale features which reconciliation has been a long standing issue. This paper presents a data-derived model of the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling that combines a nonlinear dynamical description of the global features with a statistical description of the multi-scale aspects. This approach yields deterministic predictions of the global component of magnetospheric dynamics and probabilistic predictions of its multi-scale features.

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