Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes

Details Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes

2007-01-15

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701167v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane numbers, closed-form solutions exist for the mean and the variance of the number of predicted hurricanes, and for the standard error on the mean. We derive a number of such expressions.

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