Upper Limits in the Case That Zero Events are Observed: An Intuitive Solution to the Background Dependence Puzzle

Details Upper Limits in the Case That Zero Events are Observed: An Intuitive Solution to the Background Dependence Puzzle Upper Limits in the Case That Zero Events are Observed: An Intuitive Solution to the Background Dependence Puzzle

2000-02-10

arxiv.org/abs/hep-ex/0002028v1

Physics

High Energy Physics

High Energy Physics - Experiment

Latex file (compiled with cernrep.cls included) 5 pages, no figures. To appear in the Proceed. of the workshop on ''Confidence

Scientific paper

We compare the ``unified approach'' for the estimation of upper limits with an approach based on the Bayes theory, in the special case that no events are observed. The ``unified approach'' predicts, in this case, an upper limit that decreases with the increase in the expected level of background. This seems absurd. On the other hand, the Bayesian approach leads to a result which is background independent. An explanation of the Bayesian result is presented, together with suggested reasons for the paradoxical result of the ``unified approach''.

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