Comparing the ensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation as inputs for probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts

Details Comparing the ensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation as inputs for probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts Comparing the ensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation as inputs for probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts

2003-10-13

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0310059v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

We ask the following question: what are the relative contributions of the ensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation to the skill of a site-specific probabilistic temperature forecast? Is it the case that most of the benefit of using an ensemble forecast to predict temperatures comes from the ensemble mean, or from the ensemble spread, or is the benefit derived equally from the two? The answer is that one of the two is much more useful than the other.

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