Epidemic Variability in Hierarchical Geographical Networks with Human Activity Patterns

Details Epidemic Variability in Hierarchical Geographical Networks with Human Activity Patterns Epidemic Variability in Hierarchical Geographical Networks with Human Activity Patterns

2012-04-03

arxiv.org/abs/1204.0706v1

Physics

Physics and Society

Scientific paper

Recently, some studies have revealed that non-Poissonian statistics of human behaviors stem from the hierarchical geographical network structure. On this view, we focus on epidemic spreading in the hierarchical geographical networks, and study how two distinct contact patterns (i. e., homogeneous time delay (HOTD) and heterogeneous time delay (HETD) associated with geographical distance) influence the spreading speed and the variability of outbreaks. We find that, compared with HOTD and null model, correlations between time delay and network hierarchy in HETD remarkably slow down epidemic spreading, and result in a upward cascading multi-modal phenomenon. Proportionately, the variability of outbreaks in HETD has the lower value, but several comparable peaks for a long time, which makes the long-term prediction of epidemic spreading hard. When a seed (i. e., the initial infected node) is from the high layers of networks, epidemic spreading is remarkably promoted. Interestingly, distinct trends of variabilities in two contact patterns emerge: high-layer seeds in HOTD result in the lower variabilities, the case of HETD is opposite. More importantly, the variabilities of high-layer seeds in HETD are much greater than that in HOTD, which implies the unpredictability of epidemic spreading in hierarchical geographical networks.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Epidemic Variability in Hierarchical Geographical Networks with Human Activity Patterns does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Epidemic Variability in Hierarchical Geographical Networks with Human Activity Patterns, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Epidemic Variability in Hierarchical Geographical Networks with Human Activity Patterns will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-355115