Physics – Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Scientific paper
2005-08-26
Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L06814, 2006
Physics
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Final version of the paper
Scientific paper
10.1029/2005GL024620
Understanding the atmospheric low-frequency variability is of crucial importance in fields such as climate studies, climate change detection, and extended-range weather forecast. The Northern Hemisphere climate features the planetary waves as a relevant ingredient of the atmospheric variability. Several observations and theoretical arguments seem to support the idea that winter planetary waves indicator obey a non-Gaussian statistics and may present a multimodal probability density function, thus characterizing the low-frequency portion of the climate system. We show that the upper tropospheric jet strength is a critical parameter in determining whether the planetary waves indicator exhibits a uni- or bimodal behavior, and we determine the relevant threshold value of the jet. These results are obtained by considering the data of the NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses for the overlapping period. Our results agree with the non-linear orographic theory, which explains the statistical non-normality of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and its possible bimodality.
Calmanti Sandro
Dell'Aquila Alessandro
Lucarini Valerio
Ruti Paolo M.
Speranza Antonio
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