Modeling geomagnetic shielding of solar energetic particles and cosmic rays

Physics

Scientific paper

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[2716] Magnetospheric Physics / Energetic Particles: Precipitating, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7959] Space Weather / Models, [7984] Space Weather / Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a space weather hazard posing risks to manned and robotic space flight missions. At low- to mid-latitudes the Earth's magnetic field usually shields the upper atmosphere and spacecraft in low Earth orbit from SEPs. During severe geomagnetic storms distortion of the Earth's field suppresses geomagnetic shielding giving SEPs access to Earth at the mid-latitudes. Significant variations in geomagnetic shielding can occur on timescales of an hour or less in response to changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF. Geomagnetic shielding of energetic ions is quantified in terms of cutoff rigidity, and a dynamic geomagnetic cutoff model can be used for predicting SEP and cosmic ray fluxes in geospace. Two advancements in recent years that have made a real-time geomagnetic cutoff rigidity model a possibility are (1) increased computer power, and (2) the development of accurate dynamic geomagnetic field models that respond to changes in Dst, solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF. A numerical model capable of a real time cutoff prediction will be presented. Issues and techniques related to modeling SEP and cosmic ray fluxes in the magnetosphere will be discussed.

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