Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmsm51a1326n&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #SM51A-1326
Physics
[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [2736] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetosphere/Ionosphere Interactions, [2784] Magnetospheric Physics / Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, [2788] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetic Storms And Substorms
Scientific paper
The geomagnetic activity shows diurnal and semiannual and solar cycle variations. The cause of these variations consists of two effects. One is the periodical change of the solar wind parameters due to a variation of the geometrical condition between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere. The other is the periodical change of the SW-M-I coupling efficiency caused by the changing of ionospheric conductivity in the polar cap region. Therefore, operational forecasting model of geomagnetic activity should take into account these variations and dependence. We have developed the empirical model for forecasting geomagnetic activity considering the change of the SW-M-I coupling efficiency. This model can reproduce Equinoctial effect and solar cycle dependence of geomagnetic activity. Further, we have found that the efficiency of SW-M-I coupling tend to be low during the low Alfven Mach number period, from the event analysis of Nov. 2003 storm. Also, we have found that the Alfven Mach number dependence exists independently form the solar wind electric field dependence based on the statistical analysis of PCN index. Since the condition of low Alfven Mach number tend to occur within the ICMEs, we are developing the empirical model with considering the Alfven Mach number dependence. We expect this modification will improve the prediction of severe geomagnetic storm. We also try to examine that our model is valid during the period of recent few years of quiet solar activity.
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