Physics
Scientific paper
Aug 1976
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1976jbis...29..465l&link_type=abstract
British Interplanetary Society, Journal, vol. 29, July-Aug. 1976, p. 465-468.
Physics
Environment Effects, Extraterrestrial Life, Interstellar Communication, Carbon, Molecular Physics, Solar System, Technology Assessment
Scientific paper
The paper attempts to explain why technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations have not been detected. The discussion is restricted to living matter dependent on macromolecules with carbon-carbon chains and the probability of finding a physical environment similar to the terrestrial one. Drake's (1961) equation for the probable number of technological civilizations in a galaxy is reformulated so that the fractions of planets with intelligent life and with civilizations are functions of thermal environment. Applying the equation to earth and Mars, it is shown that the probability of contacting another civilization depends on whether both communicating systems have reached and maintained for a considerable time period a communicative state of development. It is tentatively concluded that no other civilization has been detected or has detected us because the chance of many intelligent civilizations reaching the required technological level in the same time period is very small on a galactic time scale.
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