Guaranteed accuracy in determining orbit of Halley's Comet

Physics

Scientific paper

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Halley'S Comet, Orbit Calculation, Perihelions, Solar Orbits, Acceleration (Physics), Accuracy, Astronomical Models, Error Analysis, Gas Giant Planets, Linear Programming

Scientific paper

The maximum error in the orbital determination of Halley's comet, based on observations made during 1909 to 1911 and those planned for 1985 to 1987, was estimated. The estimate was obtained by allowing for observation errors and parameters of the comet motion model, assuming the possibility of an arbitrary correlation between the errors noted, and taking into account specified constraints on the correlation. Maximum orbit determination errors found in this way were minimized by the choice of an optimal estimation algorithm. An analysis was made of the dependence of the orbit determination errors on the makeup of the observations used and on the errors of the parameters of the Marsden model of the nongravitational acceleration of the comet.

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