The stress field induced from the occurrence of the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankaido earthquakes, and their relation to impending earthquakes

Physics

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

We investigate the changes of tectonic stress in the crust and upper mantle beneath southwest Japan associated with the occurrence of the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankaido earthquakes, and their possible relation to impending earthquakes by using a three-dimensional finite element method. We construct a three-dimensional model incorporating the assumed fault planes of these earthquakes. The calculated results indicate that the temporal changes in the direction of the compressive stress from N-S to E-W beneath the Kii channel and the eastern part of Shikoku observed after the two earthquakes may be attributed only to the seaward rebound of the hanging-wall side of the assumed faults for these earthquakes. The temporal change appears to have returned to the original stage after 20 yr, indicating that the coseismic disturbance of the stress field could persist for several years. The two earthquakes may have caused a local stress drop of < 5 bar along the Median Tectonic Line in the Shikoku region. It is also found that the fault plane solutions of a few aftershocks of the Nankaido earthquake agree well with those expected from the post-seismic field. The Tonankai earthquake may have triggered the 1945 Mikawa earthquake and the 1946 Nankaido earthquake. The migrating pattern of historical interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough, which occurs first in an eastern block and is then transferred to a western block, may be explained by the loading of shear stress produced by neighbouring interplate earthquakes

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