Comet 17P/Holmes: A Megaburst Survivor

Physics

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

The light curve of comet 17P/Holmes in 2007-2009 -- before, during, and after the megaburst -- is compared with the light curves at previous apparitions. The comet has remained about 4 magnitudes brighter in the late 2008 and early 2009 relative to 1986-2000, indicating the presence of lingering or replenished particulate debris in the atmosphere. Observed brightness variations during the active phase of the megaburst and along the protracted plateau offer the event's improved parameters, all closely confirming the preliminary values in Sekanina (2008a). Modeling the steep brightness increase during the active phase allows a determination of temporal variations in the mass rate of dust injected into the halo during the megaburst. The curve is sharply peaked, with a maximum rate of 2 x 10^9 g/s (!) about 0.9 day after the event's onset, yet the halo is optically thin. A moderate outburst had evidently preceded the main event, overlapping it partially. This evidence, diagnostic of ongoing fragmentation, supports the physical scenario in Sekanina (2008a). The comet's post-megaburst behavior mimics, on a grandiose scale, its behavior following the two 1892-1893 explosions. Evidence is presented for an outburst in 1899, possibly related to the events one revolution earlier, and for elevated activity throughout 1899 and 1906. Comet 17P/Holmes is expected to be distinctly brighter at upcoming returns to the sun and could become an "annual" comet.

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