A study of alternative schemes for extrapolation of secular variation at observatories

Physics

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Extrapolation, Geomagnetism, Secular Variations, Solar Activity Effects, Fluctuation Theory, Long Term Effects, Magnetic Field Configurations, Mathematical Models, Sunspot Cycle, Synoptic Measurement

Scientific paper

The paper evaluates some alternatives to the linear and quadratic functions used in many models for investigating the secular variation of the geomagnetic field. The alternatives are developed by analyzing the annual means of the horizontal field component obtained at 12 observatories with long records (about 70 years) of continuous operation. Solar-cycle effects on the geomagnetic field are taken into account. A comparison among four analytical predictions for the horizontal component at each observatory for five years shows that schemes which employ quasi-periodic variations induced by internal sources (the hydrodynamic dynamo) and external sources (the solar cycle) can improve the extrapolation of secular variation at observatories supplying high-quality data. It is noted that the schemes are intended only to identify basic ideas that may ultimately lead to improved models.

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