Operational, Real-Time, Sun-to-Earth Interplanetary Shock Predictions During Solar Cycle 23

Details Operational, Real-Time, Sun-to-Earth Interplanetary Shock Predictions During Solar Cycle 23 Operational, Real-Time, Sun-to-Earth Interplanetary Shock Predictions During Solar Cycle 23

May 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agusmsh51b..02f&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2002, abstract #SH51B-02

Physics

7513 Coronal Mass Ejections, 7843 Numerical Simulation Studies, 7851 Shock Waves, 2162 Solar Cycle Variations (7536), 2164 Solar Wind Plasma

Scientific paper

We report on our progress in predicting interplanetary shock arrival time (SAT) in real-time, using three forecast models: the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) modified kinematic model, the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM) and the Shock Time of Arrival (STOA) model. These models are run concurrently to provide real-time predictions of the arrival time at Earth of interplanetary shocks caused by solar events. These "fearless forecasts" are the first, and presently only, publicly distributed predictions of SAT and are undergoing quantitative evaluation for operational utility and scientific benchmarking. All three models predict SAT, but the HAF model also provides a global view of the propagation of interplanetary shocks through the pre-existing, non-uniform heliospheric structure. This allows the forecaster to track the propagation of the shock and to differentiate between shocks caused by solar events and those associated with co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs). This study includes 173 events during the period February, 1997 to October, 2000. Shock predictions were compared with spacecraft observations at the L1 location to determine how well the models perform. Sixty-eight shocks were observed at L1 within 120 hours of an event. We concluded that 6 of these observed shocks were caused by CIRs, and the remainder were caused by solar events. The forecast skill of the models are presented in terms of RMS errors, contingency tables and skill scores commonly used by the weather forecasting community. The false alarm rate for HAF was higher than for ISPM or STOA but much lower than for predictions based upon empirical studies or climatology. Of the parameters used to characterize a shock source at the Sun, the initial speed of the coronal shock, as represented by the observed metric type II speed, has the largest influence on the predicted SAT. We also found that HAF model predictions based upon type II speed are generally better for shocks originating from sites near central meridian, and worse for limb events. This tendency suggests that the observed type II speed is more representative of the interplanetary shock speed for events occurring near central meridian. In particular, the type II speed appears to underestimate the actual Earth-directed IP shock speed when the source of the event is near the limb. Several of the most interesting events (Bastille Day epoch (2000), April Fools Day epoch (2001))will be discussed in more detail with the use of real-time animations.

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