Solar Cycle Variations of Ozone and Temperature at 1 hPa: A Question of Consistency

Details Solar Cycle Variations of Ozone and Temperature at 1 hPa: A Question of Consistency Solar Cycle Variations of Ozone and Temperature at 1 hPa: A Question of Consistency

May 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agusmsa32a..18k&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2002, abstract #SA32A-18

Physics

2415 Equatorial Ionosphere, 2427 Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0335), 2435 Ionospheric Disturbances, 2439 Ionospheric Irregularities : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :, 0340 Middle Atmosphere: Composition And Chemistry, 0341 Middle Atmosphere: Constituent Transport And Chemistry (3334), 1650 Solar Variability

Scientific paper

One current hypothesis to explain correlations between the 11-year solar cycle and terrestrial climate states that solar UV variability between 175-200 nm alters the radiative heating of the upper stratosphere through changes in ozone photochemistry. This initial heating perturbation may cause a small change in stratospheric circulation that can impact the lower atmosphere through a positive feedback mechanism. But how well do we understand the observed solar cycle variations in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature? There are still considerable discrepancies between ozone and temperature variations inferred from observations and model predictions based on changes in solar UV irradiance. Furthermore, increases in anthropogenic CO2, CH4, and Cly over the last two decades also impact the photochemistry of the upper stratosphere, and may modify the sensitivity of the upper stratosphere to changes in solar UV over time. We explore this possibility with a series of zonally averaged photochemical-dynamical model simulations subject to a variety of internal and external forcings over decadal time scales. Our results emphasize the need to consider solar cycle variations in both ozone and temperature self consistently. We suggest that observed estimates of solar cycle ozone variations can be used to constrain the estimated solar cycle variation in temperature to about 1 K at 1 hPa.

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