Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number

Physics

Scientific paper

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Solar Cycles, Sunspots, Amplitudes, Standard Deviation

Scientific paper

Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude RM for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise RΔt during the ascending phase, where RM is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and RΔt is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (Δt) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r ≅ 0.9 and a standard error Syx ⪉ 20.

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