Solar flare forecasting using sunspot-groups classification and photospheric magnetic parameters

Details Solar flare forecasting using sunspot-groups classification and photospheric magnetic parameters Solar flare forecasting using sunspot-groups classification and photospheric magnetic parameters

Aug 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011iaus..273..446y&link_type=abstract

The Physics of Sun and Star Spots, Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, IAU Symposium, Volume 273, p. 446-450

Physics

Sun: Flares, Sun: Magnetic Fields, Sunspots

Scientific paper

In this paper, we investigate whether incorporating sunspot-groups classification information would further improve the performance of our previous logistic regression based solar flare forecasting method, which uses only line-of-sight photospheric magnetic parameters. A dataset containing 4913 samples from the year 2000 to 2005 is constructed, in which 2721 samples from the year 2000, 2002 and 2004 are used as a training set, and the remaining 2192 samples from the year 2001, 2003 and 2005 are used as a testing set. Experimental results show that sunspot-groups classification combined with total gradient on the strong gradient polarity neutral line achieve the highest forecasting accuracy and thus it testifies sunspot-groups classification does help in solar flare forecasting.

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