Long Term Economic Relationships From Cointegration Maps

Details Long Term Economic Relationships From Cointegration Maps Long Term Economic Relationships From Cointegration Maps

2007-01-05

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701062v2

Physica A 380 (2007) 317-324

Physics

Physics and Society

13 pages, 8 figures, extended version submitted to Physica A

Scientific paper

10.1016/j.physa.2007.02.067

We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the Sorting Points Into Neighborhoods (SPIN) technique, which has been previously used to analyze large data sets from DNA arrays. We exemplify the technique in three data sets: US interest rates, monthly inflation rates and gross domestic product growth rates.

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