Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process

Details Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process

Apr 1977

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1977pepi...14...97k&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 14, Issue 2, p. 97-108.

Physics

17

Scientific paper

The extrapolation in time of an earthquake sequence considered as a multidimensional stochastic point process is discussed. Estimates of seismic risk for both long- and short-term predictions are considered and an algorithm for the calculations is proposed. Several examples of short-term extrapolations are carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulations of the process. An assessment of the predictability of the seismic process shows that the catalog of strong earthquakes (M >= 7.0) contains about 0.4 bits of information per earthquake for the particular model of the process applied here.

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