Physics
Scientific paper
Nov 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011rpph...74k2801o&link_type=abstract
Reports on Progress in Physics, Volume 74, Issue 11, pp. 112801 (2011).
Physics
Scientific paper
Recent evidence demonstrates that the Earth has been warming monotonically since 1980. Transient to equilibrium temperature changes take centuries to develop, as oceans are slow to respond to atmospheric temperature changes. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations, from ice core and observatory measurements, display consistent increases from historical averages, beginning in about 1880, and can be associated with the industrial revolution. The climactic consequences of this human dominated increase in atmospheric CO2 define a geologic epoch that has been termed the 'Anthropocene.' The issue is whether this is a short term, relatively minor change in global climate, or an extreme deviation that lasts for thousands of years. Eight 'myths' that posit the former are examined in light of known data. The analysis strongly suggests the latter. In order to stabilize global temperatures, sharp reductions in CO2 emissions are required: an 80% reduction beginning in 2050. Two examples of economically sustainable CO2 emission reduction demonstrate that technological innovation has the potential to maintain our standard of living while stabilizing global temperatures.
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