Comparing long-term trends in the ionospheric F2-region with two different methods

Physics

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Based on an extensive new data bank of monthly median foF2 and M(3000)F2 values (Damboldt and Suessmann, submitted for publication) long-term trends were investigated for both foF2 and hmF2 applying two different analysis methods. The first method uses a regression model to eliminate the solar and geomagnetic activity influence by a simple twofold regression analysis (REG) whereas the second method uses an ITU ionospheric model (MOD). With both methods trends at individual stations have been derived as well as in a global scale. The results of both methods deliver comparable results; small differences may occur by the fact that with the ITU model the geomagnetic activity influence cannot be removed. The global foF2 trends are very small and not significantly different from zero. The hmF2 trends are significantly negative and can qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect. During the solar cycle 23/24 minimum the hmF2 values are markedly reduced in addition to the already negative trend. A similar unusual effect was found by the other authors in atmospheric density observations with satellite drag measurements.

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