Man-made debris in low earth orbit - A threat to future space operations

Physics

Scientific paper

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Collision Avoidance, Earth Orbits, Flight Hazards, Man Environment Interactions, Space Debris, Spacecraft Orbits, Altitude, Collision Rates, Density Distribution, Integral Equations, Operational Hazards, Orbital Elements, Solar Orbits, Space Shuttle Orbiters

Scientific paper

A path integration (PI) formulation for calculating the hazard levels of man-made debris in low earth orbit is presented. This formulation makes it possible to consider specific spacecraft orbits and debris deposited in specific orbits in determining the hazard levels. Two examples are considered: the Space Shuttle in 300 km orbit and spacecraft in sun-synchronous orbit. It is shown that the PI formalism allows more information on the properties of the debris population to be used than can be accommodated with a latitude-averaged model. Collision times calculated with the PI formalism are generally shorter, indicating that a collision is more likely to occur than is shown by an analysis using a smoothed population with a relative velocity of 7 km/s. It is found that the hazard presented for spacecraft as large as the Shuttle is small as long as they operate at low altitude. Much smaller spacecraft can operate with little danger even in regions of maximum debris density as evidenced by the example of the sun-synchronous spacecraft.

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