Historical trends in Southern Ocean storminess: Long-term variability of extreme wave heights at Cape Sorell, Tasmania

Details Historical trends in Southern Ocean storminess: Long-term variability of extreme wave heights at Cape Sorell, Tasmania Historical trends in Southern Ocean storminess: Long-term variability of extreme wave heights at Cape Sorell, Tasmania

Sep 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3718601h&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 18, CiteID L18601

Physics

2

Oceanography: Physical: Surface Waves And Tides (1222), Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions (0312, 4504), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)

Scientific paper

Atmospheric re-analyses indicate increased Southern Ocean (SO) storminess over the past few decades. A southern Australia waverider record provides a 23-year record of storm waves generated in the SO. Statistical models to estimate long-term trends in frequency and intensity of severe storm waves, based on time-dependent versions of the Peak over Threshold model, are applied to investigate SO storminess trends. Significant increase in frequency of storm wave events observed in the corrected ERA-40 re-analysis significant wave height (HS) record is supported by increasing frequency of synoptic storms which drive large wave events at the site in both ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR re-analyses. However buoy data show a small decrease in storm wave event frequency, consistent with previous studies investigating trends in SO mean HS from altimeter records. Re-analysis winds, with apparent increasing trend, may have influenced prior SO research conclusions, particularly related to weakening of the SO CO2 sink.

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