Assessing the idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Details Assessing the idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Assessing the idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Feb 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3304708l&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 4, CiteID L04708

Physics

3

Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation (1854)

Scientific paper

The 24-year retrospective forecast data set from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is analyzed to study its idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature under its current configuration. The analysis approach assumes the forecasting model and system to be predicted share exactly the same physics so that the idealized predictability is calculated and serves as the upper limit of the predictive skill in practical forecasts. The analysis shows that CFS is not capable of predicting itself over much of the mid-latitudes land areas for precipitation and temperature anomalies having small temporal (monthly) and spatial (2.5° × 2.5° grid) scales at lead-times longer than a month. Anomalies become more predictable with the increase in temporal and spatial scales and with the decrease in lead-times, as illustrated with results from the central US region. The results imply that additional care should be taken when using climate model seasonal forecast products.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Assessing the idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Assessing the idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Assessing the idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1491849