Solar Variability and Climate - UTLS amplification of Solar Signal

Physics

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Scientific paper

The solar signal in atmospheric interannual variability is well tracked till the stratosphere. However, it is still not clear how this signal propagates into the troposphere and does it affect Earth's climate. The mechanism suggesting downward propagation of solar effect from the stratopause levels could account for stratotropospheric teleconnections at middle to high latitudes, but is not applicable for very low latitudes, where the atmospheric angular momentum is almost constant. Some model experiments concerning tropical upwelling, point out the limitations of the concept of extratropical pump and downward control and contribution of stratospheric - tropospheric heating to the net tropical upwelling [13, 14]. Meanwhile, different sources of measurements show that at high solar activity the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are warmer than at low solar activity. Based on this result and taking into account above-mentioned modelling, we propose an additional amplifying mechanism of the solar influence on climate. In brief: 1) the warmer tropical UTLS at solar maximum affects vertical propagation of equatorial waves, altering the duration of westerly QBO phase; 2) the equatorial upwelling (enhanced in solar max), on its turn is modulated by QBO. This means that westerly phase of QBO will decrease the equatorial upwelling and respectively Brewer-Dobson circulation, but easterly phase of QBO will force additionally Brewer-Dobson cell.

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