Possibility and Demonstrations of 27 Day Ionospheric Forecasting

Physics

Scientific paper

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[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [7900] Space Weather, [7949] Space Weather / Ionospheric Storms

Scientific paper

The recent extended solar minimum period has provided a unique opportunity to observe how recurrent solar wind streams impact the ionosphere over year long intervals not confused by randomly occurring CME disturbances. In both the solar wind and in the ionosphere, these recurrent interactions have been extensively observed, and empirical cause and effect relationships are being established which may allow for long-range forecasting capability. To complicate matters, the direct physical connection between the solar wind and ionosphere requires a knowledge of the magnetospheric, electric fields that drive and the particles that impact the ionosphere. This presentation describes the magnitude of the ionosphere’s response to recurrent solar wind streams as well as demonstrating the 27-day forecasting capability. It will also discuss the requirement of magnetospheric forecasting of the electric field and auroral precipitation to enable physical model predictions rather than empirical predictions.

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