Predicting Intensity of Major Geomagnetic Storms from Solar and Interplanetary Properties of CMEs: A Statistical Model

Details Predicting Intensity of Major Geomagnetic Storms from Solar and Interplanetary Properties of CMEs: A Statistical Model Predicting Intensity of Major Geomagnetic Storms from Solar and Interplanetary Properties of CMEs: A Statistical Model

Dec 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsh53b0317s&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SH53B-0317

Physics

7513 Coronal Mass Ejections, 7519 Flares, 2134 Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, 2164 Solar Wind Plasma, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

This paper describes a statistical model based on logistic regression for predicting the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms. Previous studies show that the strength of the resulting geomagnetic storms depend upon various solar and interplanetary properties. During 1996-2002, 64 geo-effective events were recorded which were used for determining the parameters influencing the strength or the magnitude of the resulting geomagnetic storms. 60% of the events recorded were used for determining the model parameters while the rest 40% were used for validating the model. Independent variables which include a number of solar and interplanetary factors were provided as input to the model and regressed against a binary dependent variable viz. occurrence of the intense geomagnetic storms. The present model predicts 90% of the training events correctly and 90% of the validation events correctly. The results indicate that the logistic regression model can be effectively used for space weather prediction i.e. the strength of the geomagnetic storms.

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