Forecasting and Real-Time Diagnostics of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections

Details Forecasting and Real-Time Diagnostics of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections Forecasting and Real-Time Diagnostics of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections

Dec 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsa43b..02g&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SA43B-02

Physics

7509 Corona, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections, 7519 Flares, 7524 Magnetic Fields, 7529 Photosphere

Scientific paper

We discuss an operational, fully automated, algorithm to follow the dynamical evolution and the buildup of magnetic instabilities that give rise to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in solar active regions. The tool relies on vector magnetic field measurements of the active region photosphere / chromosphere and performs the following tasks: (1) resolution of the 180-degree ambiguity in the magnetic field measurements and preparation for further use, (2) calculation of the magnetic forces and electric currents in the active region photosphere/chromosphere, (3) reconstruction of a magnetohydrodynamic velocity field corresponding to the measured magnetic field to calculate the buildup rate of the magnetic helicity in the active region atmosphere, and (4) estimation of the total magnetic helicity in the active region corona. We present examples showing that (I) flare- and CME-prolific active regions have much higher magnetic helicity, stronger magnetic forces and more intense cross-field electric currents than quiescent active regions, and (II) the magnetic helicity, chirality, magnetic flux, and magnetic energy of a CME can be calculated in real time from the results of the algorithm before and after the CME. As a result, we can both identify potentially eruptive areas on the visible solar disk and provide detailed quantitative diagnostics of the resulting CMEs. Additional work is required to predict the geoeffectiveness of these CMEs. For the algorithm to be useful we need full-disk, ideally uninterrupted, coverage of the solar magnetic field vector. This information will be available in a few years with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO; launch 2008). At the moment, full-disk vector magnetograms will be provided by the ground-based Vector Spectro-Magnetograph (VSM) of the Synoptic Optical Long-Term Investigation of the Sun (SOLIS) telescope. We will utilize the SOLIS vector magnetograms as soon as they become available.

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