New methods for predicting the magnitude of sunspot maximum

Details New methods for predicting the magnitude of sunspot maximum New methods for predicting the magnitude of sunspot maximum

Dec 1979

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1979stp.....2..264b&link_type=abstract

In NASA. Marshall Space Flight Center Solar-Terrest. Predictions Proc., Vol. 2 p 264-279 (SEE N80-24678 15-42)

Physics

3

Magnetic Disturbances, Solar Activity, Sunspot Cycle, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Statistical Correlation

Scientific paper

Three new and independent methods of predicting the magnitude of a forthcoming sunspot maximum are suggested. The longest lead time is given by the first method, which is based on a terrestrial parameter measured during the declining phase of the preceding cycle. The second method, with only a slightly shorter foreknowledge, is based on an interplanetary parameter derived around the commencement of the cycle in question (sunspot minimum). The third method, giving the shortest prediction lead-time, is based entirely on solar parameters measured during the initial progress of the cycle in question. Application of all three methods to forecast the magnitude of the next maximum (Cycle 21) agree in predicting that it is likely to be very similar to that of Cycle 18.

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