New findings on increasing solar trend that can change Earth climate: are we entering new great solar minima?

Physics – Space Physics

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

Studies of the Sun-Earth relationships during the past years have dramatically changed our view on Solar- Terrestrial Physics. Neither is the interplanetary medium unstructured or quasi-static, nor is it a simple magnetic stratified object. Thus, the interaction of the solar electromagnetic radiation (photons), hot plasma (electrons, protons and other ions), cosmic rays, microscopic dust particles, and magnetic fields (primarily from the Sun) with the upper environment of our Earth leads to a complex physics which is far to be understandable. This new science is growing rapidly, as well as for the physical problems which arise as for its growing impact on our societies. This last case is well illustrated by the emergence of the so-called Space Weather. In spite of a great number of papers and books written on this subject and on a broader one devoted to Solar-Terrestrial links, the different terms deserve to be clarified. In this paper, we will first establish a clear distinction between Space Weather, Space Climate, Space Physics, Sun-Earth connections, and Helioclimatology, this last word being introduced to describe the role of the Sun in the Earth's climate forcing. In a second step, we will emphasize the key role of the ranging time on which the effects may act. We will then underline the necessity to better predict solar activity showing the physical difficulties for such an exercise, yielding the extreme complexity for forecasting specific events. The three dataset, past Earth's temperature (since AD 630), solar shape variability (since AD 1600) and strength of umbral/sunspots magnetic field (since AD 1995) lead all to a Next Grand Minima predictable for 2015-2018. We will conclude by giving some imprints for the future.

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