Leonid dust trail structure and predictions for 2002

Details Leonid dust trail structure and predictions for 2002 Leonid dust trail structure and predictions for 2002

Oct 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002jimo...30..132m&link_type=abstract

WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization, vol. 30, no. 5, p. 132-143

Physics

19

Scientific paper

We discuss the influence of non-linearities in dust trail dynamics caused by the passage of the Earth close to or through dust trails. The effect is to make the derived parameters of these non-linear dust trail sections unreliable for prediction or for use in fitting observed data. These non-linearities become more common in dust trails as they age, but linear sections remain. The timing of encounters with linear sections of dust trails is confirmed as being within 10 minutes and typically +-5 minutes. A qualitative examination of incipient dust trails show that they have a profile that is skewed away from the Sun, that the dust trail profile is a function of Delata a_0 and that trails have a dense core at formation which will diffuse out over a few revolutions. Despite this, the density model now gives a reasonable fit over the region of parameter space responsible for storms. There is evidence that the peak region in our model for young trails may be underpredicted due to the existence of this enhanced core. A new model to predict the FWHM of linear dust trail sections is given. The predictions for the two major peaks in 2002 are: (i)7-rev trail, 2002 November 19, 03:56+-5 min UT, ZHR 1000 (810-2000), FWHM app. 130 min; (ii) 4-rev trail November 19, 10:34+-5 min UT, ZHR 6000 (2900-6000), FWHM 71 min. The 7-rev encounter will have a lower population index than the 4-rev.

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