Optimal Estimation for Exoplanet Data Streams

Physics – Optics

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

The pace of exoplanet discovery has been steadily accelerating. New detection methods are progressively mapping out more and more of the parameter space of planetary and orbital characteristics. Early results from Kepler and plans for future ground-based surveys indicate that future exoplanet databases will provide us with detailed statistics on many different planet types. Given the expectation that future databases will include many different observations of the same targets, it is useful to consider how these varying data streams may interact. We propose that any data gathered about an extra-solar planetary system (exosystem) may be treated as a partial observation of a Markov process, governed by the known laws of gravity and optics. As such, any exoplanet observation should be useful given that it is possible to relate it to a common parameter set, and it is possible to accurately quantify the error of the measurement. We present a method for incorporating any observation that meets these qualifications into a common exosystem model, based on estimation theory. A standardized parameter set is defined, with priors calculated from known exoplanet statistics, and multiple methods are evaluated for calculating posterior parameter distributions given new observations. We present specific implementations for direct imaging, radial velocity and astrometry observations, as well as for transit photometry.

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