On forecasting the sunspot numbers

Details On forecasting the sunspot numbers On forecasting the sunspot numbers

Apr 1990

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990soph..126..407k&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics (ISSN 0038-0938), vol. 126, April 1990, p. 407-410.

Physics

27

Forecasting, Solar Activity, Sunspots, Annual Variations, Autoregressive Processes, Dynamo Theory

Scientific paper

A technique based on local nonlinear dynamics is used to describe the
annual sunspot relative numbers. It is shown that the number of past
points for prediction should be between 4 and 10. The approach yields
relatively good results for short-term forecasts. It is predicted that
the current cycle (no. 22) wil reach a very high maximum.

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