Physics
Scientific paper
Feb 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3503705s&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 3, CiteID L03705
Physics
7
Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Radiative Processes, Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
Scientific paper
We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model to investigate the evolution of stratospheric temperatures over the twentieth century, forced by the known anthropogenic and natural forcing agents. In the global, annual-mean lower-to-middle stratosphere (~20-30 km.), simulations produce a sustained, significant cooling by ~1920, earlier than in any lower atmospheric region, largely resulting from carbon dioxide increases. After 1979, stratospheric ozone decreases reinforce the cooling. Arctic summer cooling attains significance almost as early as the global, annual-mean response. Antarctic responses become significant in summer after ~1940 and in spring after ~1990 (below ~21 km.). The correspondence of simulated and observed stratospheric temperature trends after ~1960 suggests that the model's stratospheric response is reasonably similar to that of the actual climate. We conclude that these model simulations are useful in explaining stratospheric temperature change over the entire 20th century, and potentially provide early indications of the effects of future atmospheric species changes.
Ramaswamy Venkatachalam
Schwarzkopf Daniel M.
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