An ENSO shift revisited

Details An ENSO shift revisited An ENSO shift revisited

Nov 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3322602s&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 22, CiteID L22602

Physics

2

Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Hydrology: Time Series Analysis (3270, 4277, 4475), Oceanography: Physical: Enso (4922)

Scientific paper

An influential 1996 paper presented a statistical analysis showing that the prolonged ENSO warm event of the early 1990's was inconsistent with the historical pattern of ENSO variability and therefore concluded that there had been a shift in ENSO behavior possibly connected to global warming. A fundamental problem with this earlier analysis is that the data used to test for a shift in ENSO behavior were not independent of the data used to identify the hypothetical shift. A new analysis is presented that avoids this problem by using more recent data. The results raise a question about the earlier finding.

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