Quantitative Prediction of Relativistic Electron Variations at Geostationary Orbit From a Diffusion Model Using Solar Wind as the Only Input

Details Quantitative Prediction of Relativistic Electron Variations at Geostationary Orbit From a Diffusion Model Using Solar Wind as the Only Input Quantitative Prediction of Relativistic Electron Variations at Geostationary Orbit From a Diffusion Model Using Solar Wind as the Only Input

May 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agusm..sm32c01l&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2001, abstract #SM32C-01

Physics

2716 Energetic Particles, Precipitating, 2720 Energetic Particles, Trapped, 2730 Magnetosphere--Inner, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

A new method of predicting relativistic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit based only on solar wind measurements has been developed. Using this method we have achieved a prediction efficiency of 0.81 and a linear correlation of 0.90 for the two years 1995 and 1996 for the logarithm of average daily flux of electrons with energies of 0.7-1.8 MeV. Using the model parameters based on the years 1995-1996, the prediction efficiency and the linear correlation for the entire five year period 1995-1999 are 0.59 and 0.80, respectively [Li et al., GRL in press, 2001]. The model is based on the standard radial diffusion equation, which was solved by making the diffusion coefficient a function of solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field properties. The average lifetime of the electrons, however, was kept as a constant at a given location. Here we report that if we make the average lifetime of the electrons vary with the solar cycle such that the average lifetime is shorter during sunspot maximum (when the ionosphere is expanded), the prediction efficiency for the five year period 1995-1999 is enhanced to 0.62. We also report the prediction of higher energy electrons (1.8-3.5 MeV and 3.5-6 MeV) using the same model.

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