The shape of the sunspot cycle

Details The shape of the sunspot cycle The shape of the sunspot cycle

Apr 1994

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994soph..151..177h&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, vol. 151, no. 1, p. 177-190

Physics

72

Sunspot Cycle, Sunspots, Temporal Distribution, Independent Variables, Mathematical Models

Scientific paper

The temporal behavior of a sunspot cycle, as described by the International sunspot numbers, can be represented by a simple function with four parameters: starting time, amplitude, rise time, and asymmetry. Of these, the parameter that governs the asymmetry between the rise to maximum and the fall to minimum is found to vary little from cycle to cycle and can be fixed at a single value for all cycles. A close relationship is found between rise time and amplitude which allows for a representation of each cycle by a function containing only two parameters: the starting time and the amplitude. These parameters are determined for the previous 22 sunspot cycles and examined for any predictable behavior. A weak correlation is found between the amplitude accurate to within about 30% right at the start of the cycle. As the cycle progresses, the amplitude can be better determined to within 20% at 30 months and to within 10% at 42 months into the cycle, thereby providing a good prediction both for the timing and size of sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 7-12 years of the cycle.

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